Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 5.273058 6.283995 7.403224 8.729595 10.253634 11.944955 13.958726
2025-03-02 3.450590 4.712060 6.270439 8.315558 10.904606 14.047241 18.121297
2025-03-09 2.489469 3.833472 5.658764 8.267535 11.840069 16.493560 22.933235
2025-03-16 1.833640 3.152325 5.102553 8.105917 12.503537 18.578189 27.443953
2025-03-23 1.525494 2.881358 5.035377 8.561971 14.010513 21.892662 33.879959
2025-03-30 1.230767 2.547643 4.788228 8.673308 14.979678 24.492375 39.501222
2025-04-06 0.993561 2.247371 4.524794 8.691410 15.768635 26.855670 44.932694
2025-04-13 0.805084 1.985817 4.269700 8.665171 16.452277 29.081464 50.294886
2025-04-20 0.735139 1.944337 4.403096 9.326168 18.335727 33.338327 59.110850
2025-04-27 0.635848 1.812595 4.335518 9.600295 19.563317 36.606954 66.559639
2025-05-04 0.560614 1.715675 4.317785 9.958612 20.963613 40.252793 74.848824
2025-05-11 0.468426 1.550705 4.124265 9.936619 21.649780 42.712409 81.301616
2025-05-18 0.370617 1.344026 3.806155 9.629115 21.793391 44.290893 86.475856
2025-05-25 0.285390 1.142266 3.456724 9.200496 21.652373 45.351245 90.842639
2025-06-01 0.234864 1.026784 3.292903 9.155841 22.274458 47.854044 97.929676
2025-06-08 0.188703 0.906466 3.088571 8.982195 22.601778 49.815721 104.151196
2025-06-15 0.172997 0.888921 3.160238 9.480829 24.414606 54.756455 116.151984
2025-06-22 0.147963 0.825069 3.085677 9.602638 25.405588 58.142530 125.416600
2025-06-29 0.124270 0.755573 2.978226 9.622512 26.165439 61.113029 134.052955
2025-07-06 0.103432 0.687863 2.859879 9.593938 26.806779 63.879536 142.442739
2025-07-13 0.099984 0.701372 3.008518 10.314613 29.274431 70.564450 158.828027
2025-07-20 0.089018 0.671926 3.006597 10.613299 30.756076 75.272150 171.531939
2025-07-27 0.080707 0.652452 3.035301 11.003551 32.493946 80.622560 185.774323